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The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 98.6%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 1.4%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 98.6%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 79.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 19%.Brazil will auction a foreign exchange credit line of up to $4 billion on December 12th.The policy continued to catalyze the large consumption sector or welcome a new round of valuation to repair the market. On December 11, the A-share market shrank. The concept sector of big consumption has been concerned by the market, and the food, beverage and retail sectors are among the top gainers. Analysts believe that near the Spring Festival, the top-down emphasis on domestic demand and policy expectations are heating up, and the big consumer sector is expected to usher in a new round of valuation repair. An Yaze, chief analyst of the food and beverage industry of CITIC Jiantou Securities, said that the recent introduction of a series of incremental fiscal and monetary policies has released a clear policy signal to strive to achieve the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year, focusing on boosting consumption and expanding effective domestic demand. The food and beverage industry is expected to usher in a turning point in the boom. (china securities journal)

The performance of deep thinking AI model exceeds the existing weather forecast. A study published in the new issue of Nature reported the latest machine learning model introduced by deep thinking. The model can make reliable probabilistic weather forecast according to current and future weather, and its performance not only exceeds the best traditional medium-range weather forecast, but also can better predict extreme weather, tropical cyclone route and wind energy production.Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of Shandong Gold H shares to over-allocation, with a target price of HK$ 22.20.Australia's S&P/ASX200 index opened up 17.50 points, or 0.21%, at 8371.1 points on Thursday, December 12th.

US$ 895 billion The US House of Representatives passed the national defense policy bill for fiscal year 2025. On December 11, local time, the US House of Representatives passed the national defense policy bill of US$ 895 billion with 281 votes in favor and 140 votes against, authorizing the Ministry of National Defense to provide funds for fiscal year 2025. It is reported that the bill has now been sent to the Senate.During the year, A-share companies threw out nearly 1,000 single and medium-term cash dividend plans. According to Wind statistics, as of December 11th, 940 listed companies have thrown out 994 single and medium-term cash dividend plans this year, with the number of them increasing by 269.41% year-on-year. The total amount of dividends involved was 667.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 166.24%. Among them, 791 orders have been implemented, and dividends have reached 360.768 billion yuan; 203 single pending implementation, the total amount of dividends to be paid is 306.751 billion yuan. (Securities Daily)CICC: The CPI of the United States rose as scheduled in November, but it did not hinder the interest rate cut. CICC released a research report saying that the CPI and core CPI of the United States both rose to 0.31% in November, which was basically in line with the market and its expectations. For the post-election policies, if the immigration and tariff policies are too radical, it will bring pressure to inflation at the end of next year, which will have an impact on the market and even the mid-term elections. Therefore, before the mid-term elections, due to the "realistic constraints" of inflation, the inflation policy will be faster, but the scope may be limited, while the growth policy will be faster, and then the overall assets will still be positive. According to the difference between the natural interest rate and the real interest rate, CICC estimates that after the interest rate cut in December, there may still be two or three interest rate cuts in 2025, with the end point of interest rate cut at 3.5-3.75% and the center corresponding to long-term US debt at 3.8-4%.